The Feasibility of Systemic Risk Measurement

testimony by Andrew Lo for the U.S. House of Representatives Financial Services Committee for its hearing on systemic risk regulation, held October 29, 2009. It proposes two major measures that could alleviate the next big financial crisis.

First, new legislation that provides more transparency on a confidential basis to regulators on financial institutions activities. This would allow measuring systemic risk using a variety of methods such as developing “network maps”.

Second, establishing a Capital Markets Safety Board (CMSB) devoted to measuring, tracking, and investigating systemic risk events. The board would manage the related data and analyse every financial wreckage in a similar manner as National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) examines e.g. ariplane crashes.

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Informational Properties of Trading Networks

There is a new interesting paper “On the Informational Properties of Trading Networks” by Adamic, Brunetti Harris and Kirilenko using transaction level data for all regular transactions in September 2008 E-mini S&P 500 futures contracts.

They construct networks from executed trades and then look at the structure of these networks and relate them to returns, volatility, volume, and duration. Interestingly they find that assortativity, low clustering coefficient and connectedness are positively related to returns and volume and negatively related to duration and volatility. In contrast, topologies with centralization and assortativity close to zero, high transitivity and high connectedness are associated with average returns and volatility, and positively related to volume and duration.

They construct networks from executed trades and then then look at the structure of these networks and related them to returns, volatility, volume, and duration of the trades.
. Interestingly they find that assortativity, low clustering coefficient and connectedness–are positively related to returns and volume and negatively related to duration and volatility. In contrast,
topologies with centralization and assortativity close to zero, high transitivity and high connectedness–are associated with average returns and volatility, and positively related to volume and duration.


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ECB workshop on “Recent advances in modelling systemic risk using network analysis”

European Central Bank (ECB) organized a workshop with the above title last Monday, 5th of October. It was the first event of this scale gathering researchers applying network theory and network analysis on banking, financial stability and systemic risk topics. The introductory remarks to the workshop were given by Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell, Member of the ECB’s Executive Board.

I provided an introduction to network theory and financial network analysis entitled “Is network theory the best hope for regulating systemic risk?” in which I developed topics of an earlier post with the same title: How to measure the systemic importance of a bank, can regulators promote safer financial topologies and is it possible to devise early-warning indicators from real-time transaction data?

Sheri Markose presented a working paper “Too interconnected to fail” where she, Simone Giansante and colleagues do stress tests on US the Credit default swaps (CDS) market. The paper uses a multi-agent simulator developed for this purpose. A demo version of the simulator is available on the above link as well.

Olli Castren (ECB) presented some novel work with Ilja Kavonius (ECB) modeling contagion across sectors of the economy using contingent claims analysis and flow of funds data. The paper “Balance sheet contagion and the transmission of risk in the euro area financial system” was recently published in the ECB Financial Stability Review. The presentation is also available.

NEW: These and other papers and presentations of the workshop are summarized in the ECB publication “Recent advances in modelling systemic risk using network analysis” (7 January 2010). See also the press release.

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European Systemic Risk Board to be established

A proposal for a new EU institution, European Systemic Risk Board, was published on 23 September 2009. The proposed body will have the mandate to map financial risks and their concentration at the system level for the macro-prudential supervision of systemic stability. European Union central banks will have a prominent role in it and the Secretariat of the ESRB will be entrusted to the European Central Bank. A press release from the same date explains the functioning of the new body in more detail.

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Receipt reactive gross settlement simulator

The Receipt Reactive Gross Settlement (RRGS) method was proposed by Jamie McAndrews in Johnson-McAndrews and Soramaki (2004) as a new, incentive compatible liquidity saving mechanism. The basic idea of RRGS is that banks are sure to use only incoming funds to settle their less urgent payments. Each bank has the incentive to submit payments to the RRGS queue as costly liquidity is consumed only when the bank receives funds from other banks.

This simulator allows simulations of one version of RRGS with historical payment data. It is easy to use and efficient, being able to simulate a day with half a million payments in less than 60 seconds. The fast speed of the simulations and quick set-up allows one to test many alternative scenarios easily.

rrgssimulator1.3

Read the rest of the entry for instructions on downloading and using this application. You are welcome to get in touch with me for any questions.

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7th Bank of Finland Simulation seminar

The Bank of Finland’s simulation seminar was organized for the 7th time on 24-26 August 2009. I thought both the talks and the discussions on the agenda this year were of high quality. I presented some work done together with Marco Galbiati on central counterparties and the topology of clearing networks. The conference covered analysis on new systems or system changes (Nikil Chande, Edward Denbee, Katzeteru Tao, Tomohiro Ota), stress testing (Jennifer Hancock, Horatiu Lovin and Andra Pineta), bank behavior during the crisis (Richard Heuver), money markets (Luca Arciero), methodological issues (Tuomas Nummelin and Matti Hellqvist) and a new approach of using experimental economics to understand the ‘games’ that can take place in payment settlement (Ronald Hejmans). The organization was impeccable once again. I’m looking forward for next year. Its one of the few annual events that attract both policy makers and researchers to discuss financial infrastructure issues.




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Software for identifying interbank loans from payment data

In 1999 Craig Furfine published the article “Interbank exposures: quantifying the risk of contagion” (BIS Working paper, No. 70) where he for the first time used data on individual payments settled in the interbank payment system to construct a time series of the unsecured overnight loan market. The methodology has since been duplicated by numerous studies (see e.g. Bech and Atalay (2008), Bech and Rordam (2008), Iori et al. (2008), Wetherilt et al (2009) under “Links to research“) and is informally referred to as the “Furfine algorithm”. Loan data of this granularity is generally not available from other sources and the data sets generated with this algorithm can be used to e.g. analyze the topology and contagion in interbank markets. Also the recent crisis has made this type of data more desirable for financial stability and macroprudential supervision purposes (see earlier post).

At its simplest, the algorithm looks for two payments: first a payment of value v from bank A to bank B on day t, and second, a payment of value v + interest on day t+1 from bank B to bank A. As the interest rate may be unknown and due to the fact that some systems have hundreds of thousands of payments per day, random matches are also possible. To reduce such errors, a number of additional criteria can be used. The following small software application can be used to match trades of any length. The program has many additional filtering criteria that can be used.

furfine-algorithm

Read the rest of the entry for instructions on downloading and using this application. You are welcome to get in touch with me for any questions.

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Is network theory the best hope for regulating systemic risk?

I was recently interviewed for the article by Christopher Wright, now published in the CFA magazine (July/August 2009, Vol. 20, No. 4) and entitled "Six degrees of rumination – Is network theory the best hope for regulating systemic risk?". The article discusses whether and how network theory can be used to develop a "financial network theory" where the linkages between banks matter as much as the banks themselves. It is available for purchase from CFA website (for $3) or you can just get in touch with me and ask for a copy (unfortunately I can’t post it here).

A recent speech by Andy Haldane (Executive Director of Financial Stability at the Bank of England) "Rethinking the financial network" tackles the same topic. It likewise understands the financial system as a complex adaptive network, and looks how other sciences besides economics have tackled similar problems: from the behavioral effects in the spread of epidemics (vs. panics in financial markets) to the robustness enhancing effects of biodiversity (vs e.g. the Glass-Steagall act that created different financial institutions with different risk profiles).

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Simulation analyses and stress testing of payment networks

The third edition of Bank of Finland series on payment and settlement system simulation studies has been published today. The preliminary versions of the papers have been presented at the annual simulator seminars arranged by the Bank in 2007 and 2008. The main focus of the analyses in this edition is on business continuity arrangements, operational stability, liquidity requirements and saving mechanisms, gridlock resolution, transaction queuing arrangements, and the topology of payment networks. The studies examine systems in several countries and cover different kinds of payment systems and regimes.

There are two papers co-authored by me and Marco Galbiati from the Bank of England in this volume. The first paper “An agent-based model of payment systems” looks at banks decisions to commit liquidity for settlement under different conditions. We find that banks tend to commit less liquidity than what would be optimal. The second paper “Liquidity saving mechanisms and bank behavior” extends the above model to an environment where banks can choose how much liquidity to use, and whether to submit payments for immediate settlement or a liquidity saving mechanism. We find that the potential benefits of liquidity saving mechanisms are not fully captured due to behavioral changes by the banks.

The book also contains a paper by Peter Zimmerman, Anne Wetherilt and me on the network topology of the sterling unsecured loan market during 2006–2008. The paper identifies overnight loans from payment data by matching the two legs of the transaction on subsequent dates (update: you can now download the tool). This gives us a unique data set which we use to see the impact of the crisis on this unsecured segment of the market. We find that the core banks have become more important during the crisis, and that the widened reserve target bands have allowed banks to exercise more discretion in forming lending and borrowing relationships.

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Genetic algorithms in Java

As part of another project I revisited some Java code for developing genetic algorithms (GA). I had programmed them earlier as part of our Agent-based simulations where banks’ decision making evolved through the use of genetic algorithms. I decided to make the general purpose GA code available in case someone finds a use for it. The Javadoc and source files are available here. There is also an example for the iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma. I’m happy to answer any questions.

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