Receipt reactive gross settlement simulator

The Receipt Reactive Gross Settlement (RRGS) method was proposed by Jamie McAndrews in Johnson-McAndrews and Soramaki (2004) as a new, incentive compatible liquidity saving mechanism. The basic idea of RRGS is that banks are sure to use only incoming funds to settle their less urgent payments. Each bank has the incentive to submit payments to the RRGS queue as costly liquidity is consumed only when the bank receives funds from other banks.

This simulator allows simulations of one version of RRGS with historical payment data. It is easy to use and efficient, being able to simulate a day with half a million payments in less than 60 seconds. The fast speed of the simulations and quick set-up allows one to test many alternative scenarios easily.

rrgssimulator1.3

Read the rest of the entry for instructions on downloading and using this application. You are welcome to get in touch with me for any questions.

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7th Bank of Finland Simulation seminar

The Bank of Finland’s simulation seminar was organized for the 7th time on 24-26 August 2009. I thought both the talks and the discussions on the agenda this year were of high quality. I presented some work done together with Marco Galbiati on central counterparties and the topology of clearing networks. The conference covered analysis on new systems or system changes (Nikil Chande, Edward Denbee, Katzeteru Tao, Tomohiro Ota), stress testing (Jennifer Hancock, Horatiu Lovin and Andra Pineta), bank behavior during the crisis (Richard Heuver), money markets (Luca Arciero), methodological issues (Tuomas Nummelin and Matti Hellqvist) and a new approach of using experimental economics to understand the ‘games’ that can take place in payment settlement (Ronald Hejmans). The organization was impeccable once again. I’m looking forward for next year. Its one of the few annual events that attract both policy makers and researchers to discuss financial infrastructure issues.


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Software for identifying interbank loans from payment data

In 1999 Craig Furfine published the article “Interbank exposures: quantifying the risk of contagion” (BIS Working paper, No. 70) where he for the first time used data on individual payments settled in the interbank payment system to construct a time series of the unsecured overnight loan market. The methodology has since been duplicated by numerous studies (see e.g. Bech and Atalay (2008), Bech and Rørdam (2008), Iori et al. (2008), Wetherilt et al (2009) under “Links to research“) and is informally referred to as the “Furfine algorithm”. Loan data of this granularity is generally not available from other sources and the data sets generated with this algorithm can be used to e.g. analyze the topology and contagion in interbank markets. Also the recent crisis has made this type of data more desirable for financial stability and macroprudential supervision purposes (see earlier post).

At its simplest, the algorithm looks for two payments: first a payment of value v from bank A to bank B on day t, and second, a payment of value v + interest on day t+1 from bank B to bank A. As the interest rate may be unknown and due to the fact that some systems have hundreds of thousands of payments per day, random matches are also possible. To reduce such errors, a number of additional criteria can be used. The following small software application can be used to match trades of any length. The program has many additional filtering criteria that can be used.

furfine-algorithm

Read the rest of the entry for instructions on downloading and using this application. You are welcome to get in touch with me for any questions.

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Is network theory the best hope for regulating systemic risk?

I was recently interviewed for the article by Christopher Wright, now published in the CFA magazine (July/August 2009, Vol. 20, No. 4) and entitled "Six degrees of rumination – Is network theory the best hope for regulating systemic risk?". The article discusses whether and how network theory can be used to develop a "financial network theory" where the linkages between banks matter as much as the banks themselves. It is available for purchase from CFA website (for $3) or you can just get in touch with me and ask for a copy (unfortunately I can’t post it here).

A recent speech by Andy Haldane (Executive Director of Financial Stability at the Bank of England) "Rethinking the financial network" tackles the same topic. It likewise understands the financial system as a complex adaptive network, and looks how other sciences besides economics have tackled similar problems: from the behavioral effects in the spread of epidemics (vs. panics in financial markets) to the robustness enhancing effects of biodiversity (vs e.g. the Glass-Steagall act that created different financial institutions with different risk profiles).

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Simulation analyses and stress testing of payment networks

The third edition of Bank of Finland series on payment and settlement system simulation studies has been published today. The preliminary versions of the papers have been presented at the annual simulator seminars arranged by the Bank in 2007 and 2008. The main focus of the analyses in this edition is on business continuity arrangements, operational stability, liquidity requirements and saving mechanisms, gridlock resolution, transaction queuing arrangements, and the topology of payment networks. The studies examine systems in several countries and cover different kinds of payment systems and regimes.

There are two papers co-authored by me and Marco Galbiati from the Bank of England in this volume. The first paper “An agent-based model of payment systems” looks at banks decisions to commit liquidity for settlement under different conditions. We find that banks tend to commit less liquidity than what would be optimal. The second paper “Liquidity saving mechanisms and bank behavior” extends the above model to an environment where banks can choose how much liquidity to use, and whether to submit payments for immediate settlement or a liquidity saving mechanism. We find that the potential benefits of liquidity saving mechanisms are not fully captured due to behavioral changes by the banks.

The book also contains a paper by Peter Zimmerman, Anne Wetherilt and me on the network topology of the sterling unsecured loan market during 2006–2008. The paper identifies overnight loans from payment data by matching the two legs of the transaction on subsequent dates (update: you can now download the tool). This gives us a unique data set which we use to see the impact of the crisis on this unsecured segment of the market. We find that the core banks have become more important during the crisis, and that the widened reserve target bands have allowed banks to exercise more discretion in forming lending and borrowing relationships.

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Genetic algorithms in Java

As part of another project I revisited some Java code for developing genetic algorithms (GA). I had programmed them earlier as part of our Agent-based simulations where banks’ decision making evolved through the use of genetic algorithms. I decided to make the general purpose GA code available in case someone finds a use for it. The Javadoc and source files are available here. There is also an example for the iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma. I’m happy to answer any questions.

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The Financial Crisis and the Systemic Failure of Academic Economics

I got my hands on this excellent "opinion paper" entitled "The Financial Crisis and the Systemic Failure of Academic Economics" by eight well known economists (Dahlem report). The paper outlines what went wrong with economics and finance in retrospect to the current crisis, and track it back (kindly said) to the failure of economics to address the questions that are most relevant to the society and not to make the shortcomings of its models clear.

"Many of the financial economists who developed the theoretical models upon which the modern financial structure is built were well aware of the strong and highly unrealistic restrictions imposed on their models to assure stability. Yet, financial economists gave little warning to the public about the fragility of their models; even as they saw individuals and businesses build a financial system based on their work."

The authors criticize heavily current representative agent economic models and hope that more efforts are put e.g. in network theory and agent based modeling.

"For example, the recent surge of research in network theory has received relatively scarce attention in economics. Given the established curriculum of economic programs, an economist would find it much more tractable to study adultery as a dynamic optimization problem of a representative husband, and derive the optimal time path of marital infidelity (and publish his exercise) rather than investigating financial flows in the banking sector within a network theory framework. This is more than unfortunate in view of the network aspects of interbank linkages that have become apparent during the current crisis."

I have collected a repository of such empirical research here. As is visible in the list, this work has already started at some central banks – as suggested in the report:

"We believe that it will be necessary for supervisory authorities to develop a perspective on the network aspects of the financial system, collect appropriate data, define measures of connectivity and perform macro stress testing at the system level. In this way, new measures of financial fragility would be obtained."

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First ABM-BaF in Torino

The first workshop on Agent-Based Modeling in Banking and Finance (ABM-BaF, see agenda) was organized by ISI Foundation, the Association of Italian Bankers, the Italian Cognitive Science Association and the Department of Economics and Public Finance “G. Prato” of the University of Torino. The three day event (9-11 February 2009) brought together researchers, bankers and central bankers and covered a lot of new ground in financial network theory and agent based modeling.

For me the most interesting new research was Domenico Delli Gatti and co-authors work on building bottom up ABM models of the economy (presentation) and Marco Lamieri and co-authors work on building credit risk models incorporating network information extracted from companies’ payment data (presentation).

I (co-)presented two papers. First, a model on “Interdependent payment systems” (presentation) and secondly, some recent work with Marco Galbiati on “Liquidity saving mechanisms and bank behavior” in interbank payment systems (presentation).

I hope the second workshop (possibly in Mexico City next year?) will be as successful as the first one.

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Hedge Funds, Systemic Risk, and the Financial Crisis of 2007–2008

The US House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform organised a hearing on the above topic on November 13, 2008 Hearing on Hedge Funds. A theme from the hearing was better data on bilateral exposures by Hedge Funds that would allow more accurate analysis (e.g. by using network models) of the impact of a failure by one of them, and its systemic consequences. See the testimony of Prof. Andrew Lo for details or go to the hearing’s web site.

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Network topology of CHAPS Sterling

A paper by Christopher Becher, Stephen Millard and me looking at the topology of payment flows among UK banks was published as a Bank of England Working Paper (No. 355). In the paper we look at the structure of payment flows under normal circumstances and see how a real operational disruption of a major bank manifested in these flows. The paper is available here (pdf)

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