Financial Networks Research Database

We have a new year again and its a good time to collect research done last year on financial networks. As last year was quite busy, the collection of papers that I had found or that had been sent to me was getting somewhat long and cumbersome to maintain.

As a consequence I decided to put the data in a database and add a form for anyone to add their research to it. I will continue to check the entries and maintain the quality of the list. Other new features include a free text search on the articles and ability and sort entries by year, title and first author. See all 22 articles added last year.


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Financial Networks Research Update

Below are a few recent papers that I have come across. Please let me know if you have one to add.

Inter-Sector Relations in the Portuguese Economy: an Application of Contingent Claim Analysis by Nuno Silva (Bank of Portugal Financial Stability report) builds a network of bilateral relations between sectors of the Portuguese economy and simulates a sudden loss on non-financial corporations equity and an increase in credit impairment. These results highlight the importance of the banking system in the economy. Any shock in the financial sector has more impact on the overall system than a shock in other sectors. The model is based on the Gray, Merton and Bodie (2007) model where the economy is represented as a set of balance sheets interrelated by equity and implicit guarantees on debt payments. The approach has been used by Castren and Kavonius (2009) for euro area sectors as well.

Interbank tiering and money center banks by Ben Craig and Goetz von Peter (BIS working paper) provides evidence that interbank markets are tiered rather than flat. Most banks do not lend to each other directly but through money center banks acting as intermediaries. They use Bundesbank data on bilateral interbank exposures among 1800 banks.

Analyzing Systemic Risk with Financial Networks: An Application During a Financial Crash by Burak Saltoglu and Taylan Eren Yenilmez analyze the network properties of the Turkish overnight money market during the financial crisis and propose a centrality measure to monitor and identify systemically important institutions in the financial system.

Completeness, interconnectedness and distribution of interbank exposures – a parameterized analysis of the stability of financial networks by Angelika Sachs (Bundesbank Working paper) finds that financial stability depends not only on the completeness and interconnectedness of the network but also on the distribution of interbank exposures within the system. More concentrated networks are less stable. A network with asset concentration among core banks is less stable than a random graph with banks of homogeneous size. The results come from simulations on domino effects on random structures within realistic aggregate balance sheet structures.

National Security and Global Financial Governance by Annelies Z. Kamra discusses how network analysis of the financial system can be used to analyze and improve national security. These strategies can include checks to stop cascades and regulations to break up actors with high measures of centrality.

The Transaction Network in Japan’s Interbank Money Markets by Kei Imakubo and Yutaka Soejima look at the structural changes in the Japanese money markets. They find that that interbank payment flows in Japan have changed from a star-shaped network with money brokers mediating at the hub to a decentralized network with numerous other channels. Another paper by the same authors, The Microstructure of Japan’s Interbank Money Market: Simulating Contagion of Intraday Flow of Funds Using BOJ-NET Payment Data analyzes and runs simulations on the payment network to understand the intraday flow of funds within Japan’s interbank money market, especially recycling of the “receipt-driven payments”.

I hope to post another update in a few months.

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Visualization of intersecting ownership of CDOs

Valdis Krebs has prepared an interesting visualization on the intersecting ownership of CDOs using data from ProPublica (see Interactive: CDOs’ Interlocking Ownership). A small picture is reproduced below with green nodes as investment banks and the blue nodes as the various CDOs involved in cross-ownership. See the original page for more details.

Circular CDOs: Contagion in the Financial Industry

Circular CDOs: Contagion in the Financial Industry



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Proceedings from Operationalizing Systemic Risk Monitoring -conference

The IMF organized a three-day conference in Washington, D.C. on Operationalizing Systemic Risk Monitoring during May 26–28, 2010.  The conference brought together government officials, academics, and private sector participants to discuss (i) Operational Frameworks for the Identification of Systemically Important Financial Institutions, Markets, and Instruments (SIMIs) (day 1); (ii) Measuring and Monitoring Leverage, Liquidity, and Tail Risks (day 2); and (iii) Use of Network Analysis to Assess Systemic Risk (day 3).

A website containing the program for the conference, a list of participants, conference proceedings and all available presentations is now available.

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Update on financial network research

The summer was a busy time for research on financial networks, ranging from interlinkages between economies via interbank money markets to financial infrastructures. One sentence summaries of eight papers are below.  Let me know if you have a relevant paper or work that I can add to the list.

“Analysing Interconnectivity among Economies”

Alfred Wong and Tom Fong study how interconnected relationships between economies can be disentangled into simple and quantifiable bilateral interdependence linkages, using 11 Asia-Pacific economies as an example.  Hong Kong Monetary Authority Working Papers No. 1003. (download)

“Systemic risk, financial contagion and financial fragility”

Serafín Martínez-Jaramillo, Omar Pérez Péreza, Fernando Avila Embriza and Fabrizio López Gallo Deya model systemic risk with two main components: a random shock that weakens one or more financial institutions and a transmission mechanism which transmits and possibly exacerbates such negative effects to the rest of the banking network. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (in press, link to sciencedirect)

“Systemic risk in a network model of interbank markets with central bank activity”

Co-Pierre Georg and Jenny Poschmann investigate which influence central bank activity has on interbank markets. Jena Economic Research Papers No. 2010-033. (download)

“Peer monitoring or contagion? Interbank market exposure and bank risk”

F.R. Liedorp a, L. Medema b, M. Koetter b, R.H. Koning b,
I. van Lelyveld a

F.R. Liedorp, L. Medema, M. Koetter, R.H. Koning, and I. van Lelyveld test if interconnectedness in the interbank market is a channel through which banks affect each others riskiness. The evidence is based on quarterly bilateral exposures of all banks active in the Dutch interbank market between 1998 and 2008.  DNB working paper No. 248. (download).

“The sterling unsecured loan market during 2006-08: insights from network theory”

Anne Wetherilt, Peter Zimmerman and Kimmo Soramäki analyze empirically the unsecured overnight money market in the United Kingdom as a network of relationships and examine how the structure has changed over the recent period of crisis. Bank of England Working Paper No 398. (download)

“What do network theory and endogenous risk theory have to say about the effects of central counterparties on systemic stability?”

Jean-Pierre Zigrand’s paper considers what network theory can say about the effects of CCPs on systemic stability and how do different CCP structures (e.g. one vs multiple CCPs) alter systemic risk. Banque de France Financial Stability Review No 14. (download)

“Liquidity costs and tiering in large-value payment systems”

Mark Adams, Marco Galbiati and Simone Giansante develop and simulates a model of the emergence of networks in an interbank RTGS payment system. Bank of England Working Paper No. 399. (download)

“Liquidity-saving mechanisms and bank behaviour”

Marco Galbiati and Kimmo Soramäki develop a simple agent based model and investigate the effect of liquidity-saving mechanisms (LSMs) in interbank payment systems.  The paper is published as Bank of England Working Paper No 400. (download)

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Systemically important banks get better terms for their overnight borrowing

A new paper by Farooq Akram and Casper Christophersen entitled “Interbank overnight interest rates – gains from systemic importance” analyses the Norwegian overnight interbank interest rates paid by banks. They find that during the Financial crisis, the interest rates were substantially below indicative quotes of interest rates provided by major banks. The interest rate variation is explained by the relative size and connectedness of the banks, implying favorable terms for banks of systemic importance.

Moreover, interest rates are found to depend not only on overall liquidity in the interbank market, but possibly on its distribution among banks as well, suggesting exploitation of market power by banks with surplus liquidity. They also find evidence of stronger effects on interest rates of systemic importance, credit ratings and liquidity demand and supply since the start of the current financial crisis.

An open-source implementation of the algorithm for uncovering the interbank loans was developed as part of this project. The algorithm is available as part of the Financial Network Analyzer.

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Workshop on “Frameworks for Systemic Risk Monitoring”

Committee to Establish a National Institute of Finance (CE-NIF), the Center for Financial Policy at the R.H. Smith School of Business at the University of Maryland and the Pew Financial Reform Project are organizing a workshop on “Frameworks for Systemic Risk Monitoring.” It will be held in Washington DC on June 21-22, 2010.

The conference brings together leading minds from academia, industry, and government (see agenda). Key speakers include Markus Brunnermeier (Princeton), Simon Johnson (MIT), Raghuram Rajan (Chicago), John Geanakoplos (Yale), Rama Cont (Columbia) and Alan King (IBM Research).

Both versions of the regulatory reform legislation that were recently passed in US Congress call for increased efforts to monitor the financial system and respond to signs of heightened systemic risk. Regulators will need new tools to realize this mandate. The aim of the workshop is to move the debate forward on the development of these new tools. The conference will discuss alternative frameworks for understanding systemic risk and strategies for risk monitoring and the implications each of them has for data and systems requirements. A background paper which reviews the debate on systemic risk is also available for download.

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Financial Networks and Financial Stability

The European Central Bank published on 1 June a special feature entitled “Financial Networks and Financial Stability” in its Financial Stability Review.

The recent global fi nancial crisis has illustrated
the role of fi nancial linkages as a channel for
the propagation of shocks. It also brought to
the fore the concept that institutions may be
“too interconnected to fail”, in addition to the
traditional concept of being “too big to fail”.

The recent global financial crisis has illustrated the role of financial linkages as a channel for the propagation of shocks. It also brought to the fore the concept that institutions may be “too interconnected to fail”, in addition to the traditional concept of being “too big to fail”. [full article]

The article provides an overview on literature on financial network analysis and discusses what network theory can bring to the understanding of the concept of “too interconnected to fail”. The article was prepared by me and Silvia Gabrieli.

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New Models on Financial Linkages

Cross-Border Financial Surveillance: A Network Perspective (IMF Working Paper 105 , April 2010 ) by Marco Espinosa-Vega and Juan Sole simulates different credit and funding shocks to the banking systems of a number of countries. Using cross-country bilateral exposures data from BIS they illustrate the contagion algorithms presented in the paper.

In a similar vein Assessing the Systemic Implications of Financial Linkages (Chapter II in IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report, April 2009) by Jorge Chan-Lau, Marco A. Espinosa-Vega, Kay Giesecke, and Juan Sole discusses four complementary approaches to assess direct and indirect financial sector systemic linkages:

  • network approach which relies primarily on institutional data to contagion triggered by financial distress
  • co-risk model which assesses common risk factors
  • distress dependence matrix which is based on market data, but instead of looking at bilateral relationships as above, uses a composite time-varying multivariate distribution that captures linear (correlation) and nonlinear interdependence
  • default intensity model which measures the probability of failures of a large fraction of financial institutions due to both direct and indirect systemic linkages
Network Analysis: Contagion Path Triggered by the U.K. Failure (Jorge Chan-Lau, Espinosa-Vega, Giesecke, and Sole,  2010)

Network Analysis: Contagion Path Triggered by U.K. Failure in the model (Jorge Chan-Lau, Espinosa-Vega, Giesecke, and Sole, 2010)

Assessing the Systemic Implications
of Financial Linkages

Contagion in Financial Networks (Bank of England Working Paper No. 383, March 2010) by Prasanna Gai and Sujit Kapadia develops an analytical model of contagion in financial networks. The paper explores how the probability and potential impact of contagion is influenced by aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks, changes in network structure, and asset market liquidity. The paper is forthcoming in Proceedings of the Royal Society A.

Optimal Fragile Financial Networks (forthcoming) by Fabio Castiglionesi and Noemi Navarro studies the endogenous formation of a financial network under a model where banks establish connection to co-insure their liquidity needs. The paper rationalizes the evidence of sparse network structures observed in the topology of interbank networks.

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Conferences on financial networks in May

Risk Europe 2010 (Frankfurt, 25-28 May) will have a seminar on “Using financial network models for counterparty risk analysis: from micro to macro” by Olli Castren (European Central Bank) and a session on “Using network theory to assess systemic risk” presented by me. Risk Europe is the Risk Magazines annual flagship event and carries this year the theme of “Navigating regulatory reform and reduced liquidity in a changing landscape”.

IMF organizes a conference on “Operationalizing Systemic Risk Monitoring” (Washington DC, 26-28 May). The conference will bring together policy makers, industry and academia to discuss new approaches for identifying systemically important institutions, and for measuring and modeling systemic risk. The conference will have one day devoted to the use of network analysis for assessing systemic risk (see IMF report in previous post). I will participate in a panel session together with Sheri Markose and Rama Cont on “How to Measure Systemic Interconnectedness – Network Perspectives”.

Also on the same week Deutsche Bundesbank is organizing a workshop on “Interconnectedness of Financial Institutions: Microeconomic Evidence, Aggregated Outcomes, and Consequences for Economic Policy” (Frankfurt, 26 May) to discuss the consequences of changes in the financial system and in particular of a greater degree of interconnectedness of financial institutions.

How to Measure Systemic Interconnectedness – Network
Perspectives


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